The Impact of COVID-19 and War in Ukraine on Energy Prices of Oil and Natural Gas

The oil and gas sector remains pivotal in supplying energy globally. COVID-19 pandemic the Russia–Ukraine crisis intertwined supply demand, incurred volatility of prices disrupted world economic order with profound effects on global political paths long run. To investigate impact natural for period 2020–2022, a type vector autoregressive (VAR) model, error correction (VEC) model ordinary least squared (OLS) method were used empirical analysis, producing following main results. (i) significantly Granger caused both to fluctuate at 5% level. (ii) Oil 1% level because relations substitutes each other. (iii) OLS estimation validated that cumulative number confirmed cases was positively correlated prices. However, effect diminished term as eventually brought under effective control. Exploring issues including war Ukraine market is crucial understanding relationship between shock green transitions economy recovery.